Managing Employee Churn: Expect It, Plan for It, and Stay Ahead
This essay is autogenerated from my x.com threads.
Employees will always leave you.
Always.
It doesn’t matter if you’re the best manager in the world. It doesn’t matter how great your company culture is. It doesn’t matter if you pay top dollar.
People leave for countless reasons—better opportunities, career changes, life events. You can influence retention, but you can’t prevent turnover entirely. And yet, despite understanding this reality, many business owners fail to plan for it.
The Cost of Wishful Thinking
Take a simple example: a friend of mine needs to generate $10M in sales next year. He hires 10 salespeople, each responsible for $1M in sales. If they all hit their targets, he’s golden, right?
Wrong.
Sales is a high-turnover profession. No matter how well he treats his team, at least a few will leave. He’ll likely need to hire at least 14 salespeople throughout the year because:
At least 3 will quit for various reasons.
He’ll have to replace them, which means hiring and ramping up another 3.
He’ll need 1 extra hire to cover the gap left by churn.
What happens if he doesn’t plan for this? He falls short of his revenue goal, struggles with hiring at the last minute, and watches sales decline while he scrambles.
How to Stay Ahead of Churn
Expect Turnover – Churn is normal. Build it into your hiring plan so you’re never caught off guard.
Maintain an Active Hiring Funnel – The worst time to start hiring is when you desperately need someone. Keep a steady stream of potential candidates in your pipeline.
Stay in Tune with Your Team – Employees usually know they’re leaving before they submit their two-week notice. Regular one-on-ones can give you early warning signs.
A Simple Way to Retain More People
Ask this question in your one-on-one meetings:
"Hey, are you happy right now?"
Then, stop talking. Wait.
You’ll usually get one of three responses:
Yes – Great, keep supporting them.
No – Time to dig deeper and see if you can fix the issue.
A hesitant ‘Well…’ – This is the red flag. Something is off, and it’s better to address it now before they start job hunting.
Retention isn’t about magic tricks. It’s about paying attention, having real conversations, and planning for the inevitable. If you act early, you might retain someone. If you can’t, at least you won’t be blindsided.
Turnover happens. The only question is whether you’ll be ready for it.